The Baltics Are Ready. Is the Rest of NATO?
Three small states, maximum readiness β and a larger alliance that still has questions to answer.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have spent the last decade doing something unusual in NATO: actually preparing for war. All three now exceed the 2% GDP target. All three host allied battalions. All three have introduced conscription or expanded it. The question is whether that's enough when the deterrence equation depends on what the rest of the alliance does.
Readiness at the frontier
The Forward Presence battlegroups in the Baltic states were upgraded to brigade-level in 2022. The physical infrastructure β roads, rail crossings, ammunition depots β has been significantly improved. Baltic air policing has been expanded. On paper, the eastern flank looks more defended than at any point since the end of the Cold War.
The Suwalki Gap problem
The 65-kilometre land corridor between Poland and Lithuania remains the single most analysed vulnerability in European security. It connects Kaliningrad to Belarus and, if closed, would sever the Baltic states from the rest of NATO's land forces. No one publicly discusses how it would be held in the first hours of a conflict.