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No. 039 Β· Article

Central Asia Is Quietly Drifting Away From Russia. The EU Should Pay Attention.

Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan are diversifying partnerships. Europe is barely in the conversation.

$89B China-Central Asia trade (2025)
$42B Russia-Central Asia trade (2025)
+67% Middle Corridor transit growth (YoY)
5.2% Central Asian GDP growth (avg.)

Where is Europe?

The EU's engagement with Central Asia remains remarkably thin. Total EU investment in the region is less than €5 billion, a fraction of what China spends in a single year. The EU's 2019 Central Asia Strategy promised enhanced connectivity and rule-of-law support, but implementation has been slow and underfunded.

This is a missed opportunity. Central Asia is rich in critical minerals β€” rare earths, lithium, uranium β€” that Europe desperately needs for its green transition. The region's location makes it a natural corridor between European and Asian markets. And its governments, wary of Chinese debt-trap dynamics, are genuinely open to European partnerships.

Key Takeaways
  • Central Asian trade with China ($89B) now exceeds trade with Russia ($42B)
  • The Middle Corridor through the Caspian is growing 67% year-on-year as an alternative to Russian routes
  • EU investment in Central Asia is under €5B β€” a fraction of Chinese engagement
  • The region's critical minerals and strategic location make it a natural European partner
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