China's Ukraine Gambit: Mediator or Opportunist?

China's twelve-point peace plan for Ukraine, initially dismissed by Western governments as pro-Russian propaganda, has acquired new relevance as Washington's commitment to the conflict becomes less certain. Beijing has positioned itself as the only major power capable of talking to both sides — a positioning that requires careful analysis.

China's primary interest in the Ukraine conflict is not the outcome — it is the process. A prolonged conflict that exhausts both Russia and the West serves Chinese interests in multiple ways: it diverts American strategic attention from the Pacific, it keeps Russia dependent on China for economic lifelines, and it demonstrates that the US-led rules-based order cannot reliably protect its partners.