As ice retreats, great power competition advances into the High North.
The Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average. By 2025, summer sea ice coverage had shrunk to its second-lowest extent on record, opening the Northern Sea Route to commercial shipping for five months of the year. What was once a frozen frontier is now a contested corridor.
Russia has been preparing for this moment for decades. It has rebuilt 50 Soviet-era military bases along its Arctic coastline, deployed its newest missile systems to the Kola Peninsula, and established the Northern Fleet as a separate military district. Moscow views the Arctic as both an economic lifeline and a strategic buffer.