No. 021
·
Article
The Arctic Is Melting. So Is the Old Security Order.
As ice retreats, great power competition advances into the High North.
The Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average. By 2025, summer sea ice coverage had shrunk to its second-lowest extent on record, opening the Northern Sea Route to commercial shipping for five months of the year. What was once a frozen frontier is now a contested corridor.
Russia has been preparing for this moment for decades. It has rebuilt 50 Soviet-era military bases along its Arctic coastline, deployed its newest missile systems to the Kola Peninsula, and established the Northern Fleet as a separate military district. Moscow views the Arctic as both an economic lifeline and a strategic buffer.
50+
Russian military bases in the Arctic
127
Northern Sea Route transit voyages (2025)
90B barrels
Estimated Arctic oil reserves
4x
Arctic warming rate vs. global average
China's polar silk road
Key Takeaways
- The Arctic is warming 4x faster than the global average, opening new strategic corridors
- Russia has rebuilt 50+ military bases and treats the Arctic as a core national interest
- China's Polar Silk Road puts it in quiet competition with Russia
- The Arctic Council remains paralyzed, leaving governance gaps in environmental and security issues
NEXT ARTICLE · NO. 020
India and the EU Are Finally Talking Trade. Here Is Why It Matters.